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2008: Peyton Manning vs. Drew Brees vs. Philip Rivers

Note: The book is out - buy now at http://amzn.to/2vjTitP, or read through Kindle Unlimited if you have a subscription - and it's doing fine, I suppose, but it could be doing better. So, here's one more free sample chapter.

“No Good Choices” – In 2009, there were several great quarterbacks who had great years. The year before, these same great quarterbacks had really good, but not-so-great years.

The Stats

Manning (both): 371-555 (66.8%) 4002 yards (7.21 y/a) 27 TD 12 INT, 95.0 rating, sacked 14-86, 6.88 ANY/A, 12-4 record in starts (4 4QC, 6 GWD). Rushing: 21 yards on 20 attempts (1.1 avg.), 1 TD, 1 fumble. Football Outsiders: 1554 DYAR, 30.0 DVOA (-22 rushing DYAR). ESPN: 78.0 QBR, 59.9 points added.

Brees: 413-635 (65.0%) 5069 yards (7.98 y/a) 34 TD 17 INT, 96.2 rating, sacked 13-92, 7.55 ANY/A, 8-8 record in starts (2 4QC, 2 GWD). Rushing: -1 yard on 22 attempts (-0.0 avg.), 0 TD, 6 fumbles. Football Outsiders: 1694 DYAR, 28.6 DVOA (-8 rushing DYAR). ESPN: 68.3 QBR, 37.5 points added.

Rivers: 312-478 (65.3%) 4009 yards (8.39 y/a) 34 TD 11 INT, 105.5 rating, sacked 25-151, 8.04 ANY/A, 8-8 record in starts (4 4QC, 5 GWD). Rushing: 84 yards on 31 attempts (2.7 avg.), 0 TD, 8 fumbles. Football Outsiders: 1347 DYAR, 30.3 DVOA (-2 rushing DYAR). ESPN: 66.7 QBR, 28.4 points added.

The Argument

With Tom Brady injured and no great team in sight, the All-Pro QB nod almost defaulted to Manning. Despite the temptation to do otherwise, I stick with Manning as well, although by all rights I’d go elsewhere to maintain full consistency in my positions.

Fran Tarkenton in 1967 and Dan Marino in 1986 set the precedent that yes, you can be MVQB on a .500 squad. Obviously, those are rare, because often the better quarterback makes for the better team. That wasn’t necessarily the case in 2008.

Brees and Rivers put up better numbers, both in volume and efficiency, on teams that scored more points than Manning and the Colts. In fact, the Saints scored the most points in the NFL with 463, and the Chargers were second at 439 (the Colts managed 377). Both New Orleans and San Diego outscored their opponents, but the Saints were 3-6 in one-possession games and the Chargers 2-7. The Colts, meanwhile, were 8-1 in one-possession games.

The difference in records can be fully explained by deviations in close games, and those are the games that are often decided by plays one or both quarterbacks are uninvolved in.

Manning led 4 fourth-quarter comebacks and 6 game-winning drives, but Rivers led 4 comebacks and 5 winning drives; Brees had 2 of each.[1] It thus becomes even harder to suggest it was some clutch failing, at least for Rivers, that led to the bad record.

The question is, if you pass up on Manning, who do you go with between Rivers and Brees? Rivers had the efficiency numbers; Brees became the first quarterback since Marino to throw for 5,000 yards in a season. Brees’ volume was at least partially a function of New Orleans’ defense requiring him to throw, as it often is. Rivers managed to throw for as many touchdowns on 157 fewer passes. Overall, Rivers seems to offer more competition than Brees.

Moving forward from there, some of the gap between the numbers Manning and Rivers put up could possibly be explained by teammates. 2008 was Vincent Jackson’s breakout year and Marvin Harrison’s last year, although Reggie Wayne was in his prime. (Rivers’ second WR option was Chris Chambers, who was never as productive in San Diego as in Miami.) It was the prime of Antonio Gates’ career; Dallas Clark was good, of course, but you’d always take Gates. The Tomlinson-Sproles rushing attack proved much more effective than the Addai-Rhodes combo. Tony Ugoh was a disaster at Indy’s left tackle while Marcus McNeill was coming off two straight Pro Bowl seasons at the same position for San Diego.[2] Supporting casts are never a complete explanation for a quarterback’s numbers, but they can provide some context. Here the casts are a mitigating factor, but lead in no way to a decision.

In a close call like this, we can go to the specialized metrics offered by Football Outsiders and ESPN for additional help. Traditional stats suggest Manning as the third best QB in 2008, but the special stats make the picture far murkier.

Manning always did very well in QBR, and led the NFL with a 78.0 mark in 2008. Brees was eighth at 68.3 and Rivers’ 67.7 put him ninth. Jeff Garcia finished second at 71.1, well behind Manning. By QBR, then, Manning becomes an appropriate choice again. If either Brees or Rivers were closer to Manning in QBR, Manning as MVQB would become a much more tenuous proposition.

Then, at Football Outsiders, Manning was second in both DYAR and DVOA. If the same QB had been first in these stats, that might have clinched it for them. This wasn’t the case:

·         DYAR: Brees 1694, Manning 1554, Rivers 1347

·         DVOA: Rivers 30.3, Manning 30.0, Brees 28.6

·         YAR (unadjusted for defense): Brees 1565, Manning 1552, Rivers 1444

This is all shaping up to be an impossible decision, and I think it’s hard to go wrong. I usually hate over-emphasizing W-L records and under-emphasizing adjusted net yards per attempt, yet that seems necessary to keep Manning as the MVQB. However, if you went with unadjusted YAR and emphasize ESPN’s QBR, Manning would be an easier or even a clear choice. As in 1993, the alternatives split the vote between themselves.

If this season had predated the availability of advanced metrics, Rivers would very likely have been the choice.

However, taking everything into account, I see no compelling reason to deviate from Manning as the pick. I don’t begrudge anyone a different choice, though.

Peyton Manning is the NFL’s MVQB of 2008.

Signature Game: December 18, 2008: Manning completes 29 of 34 passes against the Jaguars in Jacksonville, for 364 yards and 3 TD. The Colts turn a 24-14 deficit into a 24-24 tie before Keiwan Ratliff’s pick-six wins the game, 31-24.

Once again, the book is available at https://www.amazon.com/dp/B074MH2YMH and can also be read through Kindle Unlimited if you have a subscription to that service.

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[1] A fourth-quarter comeback and game-winning drive need not come in a game that ends up within one possession. If you’re down 24-20 with 10 minutes left and win 34-24, if the QB contributed to the go-ahead drive, he gets a comeback and winning drive.

[2] Coincidentally, as it came very close to becoming Peyton Manning’s fate as well, McNeill’s career came to an end after 2011 due to a neck injury.