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2008: Peyton Manning vs. Drew Brees vs. Philip Rivers

Note: The book is out - buy now at http://amzn.to/2vjTitP, or read through Kindle Unlimited if you have a subscription - and it's doing fine, I suppose, but it could be doing better. So, here's one more free sample chapter.

“No Good Choices” – In 2009, there were several great quarterbacks who had great years. The year before, these same great quarterbacks had really good, but not-so-great years.

The Stats

Manning (both): 371-555 (66.8%) 4002 yards (7.21 y/a) 27 TD 12 INT, 95.0 rating, sacked 14-86, 6.88 ANY/A, 12-4 record in starts (4 4QC, 6 GWD). Rushing: 21 yards on 20 attempts (1.1 avg.), 1 TD, 1 fumble. Football Outsiders: 1554 DYAR, 30.0 DVOA (-22 rushing DYAR). ESPN: 78.0 QBR, 59.9 points added.

Brees: 413-635 (65.0%) 5069 yards (7.98 y/a) 34 TD 17 INT, 96.2 rating, sacked 13-92, 7.55 ANY/A, 8-8 record in starts (2 4QC, 2 GWD). Rushing: -1 yard on 22 attempts (-0.0 avg.), 0 TD, 6 fumbles. Football Outsiders: 1694 DYAR, 28.6 DVOA (-8 rushing DYAR). ESPN: 68.3 QBR, 37.5 points added.

Rivers: 312-478 (65.3%) 4009 yards (8.39 y/a) 34 TD 11 INT, 105.5 rating, sacked 25-151, 8.04 ANY/A, 8-8 record in starts (4 4QC, 5 GWD). Rushing: 84 yards on 31 attempts (2.7 avg.), 0 TD, 8 fumbles. Football Outsiders: 1347 DYAR, 30.3 DVOA (-2 rushing DYAR). ESPN: 66.7 QBR, 28.4 points added.

The Argument

With Tom Brady injured and no great team in sight, the All-Pro QB nod almost defaulted to Manning. Despite the temptation to do otherwise, I stick with Manning as well, although by all rights I’d go elsewhere to maintain full consistency in my positions.

Fran Tarkenton in 1967 and Dan Marino in 1986 set the precedent that yes, you can be MVQB on a .500 squad. Obviously, those are rare, because often the better quarterback makes for the better team. That wasn’t necessarily the case in 2008.

Brees and Rivers put up better numbers, both in volume and efficiency, on teams that scored more points than Manning and the Colts. In fact, the Saints scored the most points in the NFL with 463, and the Chargers were second at 439 (the Colts managed 377). Both New Orleans and San Diego outscored their opponents, but the Saints were 3-6 in one-possession games and the Chargers 2-7. The Colts, meanwhile, were 8-1 in one-possession games.

The difference in records can be fully explained by deviations in close games, and those are the games that are often decided by plays one or both quarterbacks are uninvolved in.

Manning led 4 fourth-quarter comebacks and 6 game-winning drives, but Rivers led 4 comebacks and 5 winning drives; Brees had 2 of each.[1] It thus becomes even harder to suggest it was some clutch failing, at least for Rivers, that led to the bad record.

The question is, if you pass up on Manning, who do you go with between Rivers and Brees? Rivers had the efficiency numbers; Brees became the first quarterback since Marino to throw for 5,000 yards in a season. Brees’ volume was at least partially a function of New Orleans’ defense requiring him to throw, as it often is. Rivers managed to throw for as many touchdowns on 157 fewer passes. Overall, Rivers seems to offer more competition than Brees.

Moving forward from there, some of the gap between the numbers Manning and Rivers put up could possibly be explained by teammates. 2008 was Vincent Jackson’s breakout year and Marvin Harrison’s last year, although Reggie Wayne was in his prime. (Rivers’ second WR option was Chris Chambers, who was never as productive in San Diego as in Miami.) It was the prime of Antonio Gates’ career; Dallas Clark was good, of course, but you’d always take Gates. The Tomlinson-Sproles rushing attack proved much more effective than the Addai-Rhodes combo. Tony Ugoh was a disaster at Indy’s left tackle while Marcus McNeill was coming off two straight Pro Bowl seasons at the same position for San Diego.[2] Supporting casts are never a complete explanation for a quarterback’s numbers, but they can provide some context. Here the casts are a mitigating factor, but lead in no way to a decision.

In a close call like this, we can go to the specialized metrics offered by Football Outsiders and ESPN for additional help. Traditional stats suggest Manning as the third best QB in 2008, but the special stats make the picture far murkier.

Manning always did very well in QBR, and led the NFL with a 78.0 mark in 2008. Brees was eighth at 68.3 and Rivers’ 67.7 put him ninth. Jeff Garcia finished second at 71.1, well behind Manning. By QBR, then, Manning becomes an appropriate choice again. If either Brees or Rivers were closer to Manning in QBR, Manning as MVQB would become a much more tenuous proposition.

Then, at Football Outsiders, Manning was second in both DYAR and DVOA. If the same QB had been first in these stats, that might have clinched it for them. This wasn’t the case:

·         DYAR: Brees 1694, Manning 1554, Rivers 1347

·         DVOA: Rivers 30.3, Manning 30.0, Brees 28.6

·         YAR (unadjusted for defense): Brees 1565, Manning 1552, Rivers 1444

This is all shaping up to be an impossible decision, and I think it’s hard to go wrong. I usually hate over-emphasizing W-L records and under-emphasizing adjusted net yards per attempt, yet that seems necessary to keep Manning as the MVQB. However, if you went with unadjusted YAR and emphasize ESPN’s QBR, Manning would be an easier or even a clear choice. As in 1993, the alternatives split the vote between themselves.

If this season had predated the availability of advanced metrics, Rivers would very likely have been the choice.

However, taking everything into account, I see no compelling reason to deviate from Manning as the pick. I don’t begrudge anyone a different choice, though.

Peyton Manning is the NFL’s MVQB of 2008.

Signature Game: December 18, 2008: Manning completes 29 of 34 passes against the Jaguars in Jacksonville, for 364 yards and 3 TD. The Colts turn a 24-14 deficit into a 24-24 tie before Keiwan Ratliff’s pick-six wins the game, 31-24.

Once again, the book is available at https://www.amazon.com/dp/B074MH2YMH and can also be read through Kindle Unlimited if you have a subscription to that service.

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[1] A fourth-quarter comeback and game-winning drive need not come in a game that ends up within one possession. If you’re down 24-20 with 10 minutes left and win 34-24, if the QB contributed to the go-ahead drive, he gets a comeback and winning drive.

[2] Coincidentally, as it came very close to becoming Peyton Manning’s fate as well, McNeill’s career came to an end after 2011 due to a neck injury.

The Best of the Rest

Years that I do not cover in depth in the manuscript. By process of elimination, you can now tell which years I do cover in depth. 

In all of these, I agree with the AP selection.

2014: Aaron Rodgers (341-520-4381-38-5). A lot of quarterbacks had standout years in 2014. Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger had career years and Drew Brees was his usual self; Peyton Manning had the last great half-season of his career. But Rodgers outperformed them all.

2010: Tom Brady (324-492-3900-36-4). Surprisingly, the first unanimous All-Pro QB and MVP was this season. In the MVP voting, Favre had swiped a vote from Brady in 2007, Vick from Manning in 2004. Philip Rivers (4710 yards on 8.7 per attempt, 30 TD) could theoretically have challenged him, but Brady’s interception rate was just too low.

2005: Peyton Manning (305-453-3747-28-10). It’s kind of amazing that only one of Manning’s All-Pro/MVQB seasons is in this section.

Stats Explained

Author's Note: This is the second part of a 36,000-word project I drafted earlier this year and have long been considering releasing as an e-book. The introduction is available by clicking here. Any feedback is appreciated.

Stats Explained

This book relies heavily on statistics. It is my belief that statistics demonstrate very well what a player has done on the field. Statistics were not invented in 1990 by fantasy sports nerds. They have a purpose.

The eye test, when available, can still fail, both for the uninformed and sometimes even the quite well-informed. The only true eye test doesn’t work without seeing all 22 players on the field, and that is not available except the last couple seasons. Not everyone can watch the games, either, and those who do have memories that can fail or fade over time.

Plus, I love numbers. If you have them, I will use them.

Every football fan owes a tremendous debt of gratitude for the folks at Sports Reference and Pro Football Reference for their fantastic work. Their scoring summaries, game logs, and Play Index provide a great deal of information in this book beyond just total season statistics. I’m sure almost every football fan is familiar with their work, but head on over to www.pro-football-reference.com anyway to check them out. The Play Index (at www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index) is a particularly great tool for finding cool statistics.

That being said, here are the rate statistics that appear throughout the book.

Passer Rating

Passer rating is the official NFL metric of passing efficiency. It creates a single number out of a passer’s completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions per attempt. It was invented in 1973 and immediately implemented by the league. Passer ratings in seasons prior to 1973 became official retroactively.

Adjusted Yards per Attempt

Adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) takes a passer’s yards, credits them 20 yards for touchdowns, demerits them 45 for interceptions, and averages yards per attempt. It is generally considered a more accurate measure of a quarterback’s performance than passer rating, and is used here through the 1968 season.

Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt

Adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) is AY/A but with sacks taken into account. QB sack data is available for 1969 and beyond. This book uses AY/A through 1968 and ANY/A for 1969-present.

All else equal, if passer rating points to one quarterback, and AY/A or ANY/A to the other, I will lean towards the QB with the better ANY/A.

Fourth Quarter Comebacks and Game-Winning Drives

These are abbreviated as 4QC and GWD. The numbers are based on research by Scott Kacsmar, which Pro Football Reference adopted. A fourth quarter comeback means the team was trailing and came back; if the final score is a tie, a QB can still get credit for a fourth quarter comeback. A game-winning drive can come in a tie game, but must win the game, obviously.

Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) and Defense-adjusted Value Above Average (DVOA)[1]

These numbers come from www.footballoutsiders.com and are all publicly available on their website, which I recommend to you. The site has been around for over a decade and is very well established and respected. They describe their signature stat, DYAR, thusly: “the value of the quarterback 's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.” Meanwhile, DVOA “represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense.”[2] DVOA is depicted as a percentage above average, so 0.0 is exactly average.

Football Outsiders has calculated DYAR and DVOA for every season from 1987-2016. It is used here when available. For the seasons from 1987-2005, it is the only defense-adjusted statistic mentioned. That changes for 2006 because…

Total Quarterback Rating (QBR)[3]

This is ESPN’s stat. More accurately, it is the ESPN Stats & Information Group’s stat, so it’s not just a made-up number created by a bunch of talking heads on a stage.

QBR can be a controversial stat, but passes the smell test more often than not.[4] It is a rate stat, comparable to passer rating, ANY/A, and DVOA. It includes rushing plays as well.

The main benefit of QBR is its attempt to split up a quarterback’s contributions to his own stats from those of his receivers.[5] QBR is available from 2006 onward and, like the Football Outsiders stats, it adjusts for strength of opponent.

There are multiple numbers ESPN makes available that go into QBR. Because QBR is a rate stat, I will also use Points Added, which is a cumulative stat that ESPN describes as the “number of points contributed by a quarterback over the season, accounting for QBR and how much he plays, above the level of an average quarterback.” It is unclear whether this number is adjusted for opponent.

QBR operates on a 0-100 scale, with a 50 being average.[6]

Use of Stats

I did not create any sort of algorithm that tries to incorporate passer rating, ANY/A, DYAR, and QBR into a single number and just go with that each season. Instead, every factor is considered, including the raw completion, yard, and touchdown totals. 

The selections are thus ultimately subjective, which is why you're allowed to disagree!

Note: If you missed it in the introduction, I've also published my review of 1977 as a sample chapter, available here.

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[1] All Football Outsiders numbers in this book are freely available on their website.

[2] These definitions are found on every one of their QB leaderboard pages, e.g. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2016. Such pages are also, of course, my source for these numbers.

[3] All QBR numbers from 2006-present can be freely accessed through the URL http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr.

[4] There have been 15 qualified quarterbacks to put up a QBR of 80 or better in a season: Peyton Manning four times, Tom Brady three, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees two each, and Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, David Garrard, and Matt Ryan once each. Garrard’s season, in which he threw 18 touchdowns vs. only 3 interceptions, had by far the fewest plays in the group; in a larger sample, he might well have fallen below 80. “NFL Total QBR - All-Time Best Seasons,” ESPN.com, accessed March 1, 2017, http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/type/alltime-season.

[5] For more on this, see http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/6833215/explaining-statistics-total-quarterback-rating. This article was ESPN’s introduction of QBR. The most significant change to QBR since then is that it now contains an opponent adjustment, a change announced in 2016 at http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/17653521/how-total-qbr-calculated-explain-our-improved-qb-rating.

[6] Although, over the years QBR’s have seemed to me to be rising. I haven’t been able to find or get an answer from ESPN Stats & Info as to why.

Introduction to Most Valuable Quarterbacks

UPDATE! This project is now available on Amazon at http://amzn.to/2vjKAxG

Author's Note: This is the introduction to 36,000 words I drafted earlier this year and have long been considering releasing as an e-book. Any feedback is appreciated.

Welcome to Most Valuable Quarterbacks: 1951-2016. This is not a book about careers. It is about seasons. The best seasons quarterbacks have ever had. Or at least, the best season a quarterback had each year.

I hope I will bring to light some great seasons that weren’t recognized at the time, and I hope you will enjoy all the stories, numbers, and stories told by numbers within.

Multiple media organizations vote on the subject of the best quarterback every year for their All-Pro teams. The Associated Press produces by far the most popular and widely-cited of these teams. The AP announced All-Pro teams before 1951, but did not have a spot for quarterbacks before then, hence the starting point of this project. Sometimes, but not always, the alternatives to the AP, the most famous being Pro Football Weekly, will produce a different result than the AP. That openness for disagreement was part of the inspiration for putting this thing together.

The MVQB selections are all my opinion. I didn’t take a poll or create a stat. If you find yourself disagreeing with me at times, that means this book is generating critical thought and succeeding. If you find yourself disagreeing with me all the time, I don’t know whom to blame—I don’t think any of my picks are too adventurous, even if a couple of them might be seen that way by some people. And if you find disagreement disagreeable, feel free to interpret my arguments as devil’s advocacy. If you even want to engage in a good-faith discussion on a specific selection, feel free to email me (address at the end of the book).

Here’s the layout. Each year is discussed, but the order isn’t exactly chronological.

For the most part, the main foci of the discussion are the Associated Press 1st Team All Pro picks at quarterback. I will compare and contrast my own Most Valuable Quarterback (MVQB) selections with those the AP picked for their All-Pro team. First I discuss years in which I deviate from the AP, but not easily. Then there are years I stay with the AP, also not easily. Next come four years where I believe the AP got things very wrong.

Then, there are years so historic, everyone agrees who the best quarterback was; for these seasons, I discuss some other quarterbacks who had great years and might have been All-Pro or MVQB in other seasons. These three segments cover about half of the period from 1951-2016. The other seasons are briefly discussed in reverse chronological order; in all of these, I agree with the AP selections.

There are two additional sections; one discusses various players, teams, and trends related to the MVQB award, and then there is a conclusion [content TBD].

The MVQB award, like the All-Pro (and MVP) awards, is for the regular season only. It would make for a pretty silly comparison if I were creating an award that accounted for playoffs as a “replacement” for a regular season-only award.

All throughout, there will be all sorts of interesting tangential information in footnotes, so I hope some of those stats are fun.

Anyway, that’s what you’re in for. I hope you enjoy.

A final note: It occurred to me more than 19,000 words into this project that something like this had been done before with NBA MVP’s by Bill Simmons as a chapter of his Book of Basketball. I note that only because the baseball website FanGraphs (www.fangraphs.com) once met backlash after its first annual trade value column, similar to a thing Simmons had previously done with the NBA, albeit in a much different style. Like that, this is hardly a proprietary concept, but let the similarity be duly noted.

However, I was not consciously mimicking Simmons when I set out on this project. I have not even reread that section of his book since recalling it, so as not to consciously or subconsciously adopt any part of his approach. And I do remember enough to suggest that when Simmons “corrects” the record on the NBA MVP, part of his shtick involves the conceit that he is definitely right. I try not to give any such impression. There are times where it will even seem like I’m apologizing for my choice.[1]

Okay, with that disclaimer out of the way, let’s dig in.

Note: For a sample chapter, click here. 

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[1] I also use footnotes for non-citation reasons, in case it’s claimed Simmons invented those too.

1977: Bob Griese vs. Roger Staubach

Author's Note: This is a sample chapter (and work in progress) from a possible forthcoming ebook (work even more in progress). The conceit of the project is comparing each season's Associated Press 1st Team All-Pro quarterback to my personal pick for the most valuable quarterback (MVQB), including deciphering potential narratives that led to the AP decision.

QB	Cmp	Att	Yds.	TD	Int	Rate	ANY/A	W-L
Griese (AP1)	180	307	2252	22	13	87.8	5.26	10-4
Staubach (MVQB)	210	361	2620	18	9	87.0	6.03	12-2

Sorry, Bob. Twice All-Pro, he wins no MVQB awards, with the same guy taking it from him each time to boot. This is a less clear-cut case than 1971, but Staubach retains an edge. Griese led the NFL in touchdown passes and passer rating, just barely beating out Staubach in the latter category. Everything else points to the Dallas signal-caller.

The days of Staubach trying to beat out Morton for a permanent starting job were long-gone. Neither Miami nor Griese got off to a particularly scorching start; after 10 games, the Dolphins were 7-3 and Griese had a 78.8 rating, while the Cowboys started 8-0. On November 20, however, they dropped their second straight game, 28-13 to Pittsburgh.

Miami played next four days later. That’s when Bob Griese threw 6 touchdowns in a 55-14 Thanksgiving Day win over the Cardinals. Griese may well have ridden that game to the All-Pro nod. Yet he was “only” 15-23 for 207 yards with an interception in the game. No doubt a very fine game, especially coming in the final season before the Mel Blount rule[1], it can’t be a sufficient basis for naming Griese MVQB. Dallas’s loss to Pittsburgh was the final one they would suffer all season. Miami missed the playoffs at 10-4.

More importantly, Staubach outperformed Griese over the course of the season, beyond the much better ANY/A. Griese threw for fewer than 90 yards twice; Staubach had at least 102 every game. Griese threw for no more than 210 yards in any victory, while Staubach had 212 or more yards in four wins. Griese did hold his own in two games against Baltimore’s stifling pass defense, including in a 17-6 win, but I’m not sure how much the voters were paying attention to that, and Staubach faced his fair share of tough defenses, including Washington’s.

An argument for Griese in 1977 is that by this point, Miami was a shell of its former self compared to 1971. Instead of the Morris-Csonka-Kiick backfield with Paul Warfield catching passes, a number of nondescript backs split carries while Nat Moore was the lead receiver. Meanwhile, Tony Dorsett and Drew Pearson were now in Dallas.

Although Dorsett was the only household name playing running back for either team, Miami’s rushing attack rivalled Dallas’ and probably slightly outperformed them:

·         Malone, Davis, Norm Bulaich, Leroy Harris, Don Nottingham all rushed the ball at least 44 times. They combined for 481 carries, 2195 yards (4.56 per attempt), and 17 TD.

·         Dorsett, Robert Newhouse, Preston Pearson ran at least 89 times each. (No other back had more than 12.) They combined for 477 carries, 2069 yards (4.34 per attempt), and 16 TD.

Meanwhile, Nat Moore made All-Pro along with Pearson. Drew Pearson made the All-Pro team despite just 2 receiving touchdowns while Moore had 12. Staubach threw his 18 touchdowns to 9 different receivers; Griese’s 22 scoring passes targeted only 6 receivers, with Moore and Duriel Harris bringing in 17 of them.

Add in the quarterbacks’ own rushing yards and take away yards lost on sacks, and Staubach’s 2,620 to 2,252 advantage in yardage turns into to 2,572-1,979, or 42 yards per game. Staubach was definitely relied on more than Griese at this point in their careers, and playing better at the same time by ANY/A and by rushing.

When you add Staubach’s superior statistics to the impression one gets that Dallas relied on him more than Miami did on Griese, “The Dodger” becomes the choice. 1977 was Bob Griese’s best season, but he still could not enjoy a league-best season.

Roger Staubach is 1977’s MVQB.

Signature Game: October 16, 1977: In a key early-season matchup between the 4-0 Cowboys and 3-1 Redskins, Dallas emerges victorious, 34-16. Staubach is 15-28 for a season-high 250 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception. The Cowboys hold a slim 20-16 lead entering the final period before Staubach hits Drew Pearson for a 59-yard touchdown to put the game out of reach.

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[1] The 1978 rule that disallowed defensive backs from mugging receivers all the way down the field.